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October 2006

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103. Kevin Curtis

Hm, some dissent is showing in St. Louis over the new regime. Worth noting.

Curtis is a hardworking and valuable #3, with the right attitude. He could take over for Bruce and perform adequately.

In the prolific offense that St. Louis has he is a threat to score each week. Once again a 'match-up' player for your bench; if Holt goes off, then the next week the opposing defense will be game planning for him. This means that they have decided that he will not beat them. With Bruce primarily a possession receiver who will hardly score more then 6 T.D.s all year, Curtis, will have an excellent opportunity and can be started especially in three wide receiver leagues.

If Bruce goes down then his stock will rise dramatically.

Even with the new emphasis on the running game, Bulger is an excellent quarterback and Holt an excellent receiver. The passing attack may not be used as much between the hash-marks, and even in the red-zone, but, it will not be forgotten and will still be prominent in the scoring.

Curtis is definitely worth a, last couple of picks, flier.

July 29, 2006 in ST. LOUIS | Permalink | Comments (0)

49. Mark Bulger

Speaking of known quantities.

Injured last year, he was a disappointment. 9th in '04 he missed two games.

St. Louis has a new start and a new direction. A team is an ever changing and morphing dynamic. When the head is solid, successful, and adaptive; then things proceed with confidence. When the coach is rigid, autocratic and bullheaded, then, what might work for awhile tends to lose its luster and start to smell.

With Mad Martz gone Steven Jackson is looking for a boost and this will directly effect Bulger. It will give him more freedom, and a break.

There's still a great receiving corps, Orlando Pace, and a decently rebuilt defense.

But, he's getting old.

St. Louis has an easy schedule. They will contend for their division championship. With a little luck in Seattle they could be playoff bound.

A nice start for a new coach.

Better make sure Bulger hits the hot tub after every game!

July 22, 2006 in ST. LOUIS | Permalink | Comments (0)

17. Torry Holt

At this point there are still three elite receivers.

It's still too early to go for quarterbacks. If I can get an elite in the third round I will, otherwise, I'll wait until the majority of my favorites are gone and then pull the trigger.

Most of the runningbacks left, come with lots of risk, and, this pick has to be solid.

The majority of wide receivers will give spotty performance and the position will need constant attention all year; mixing and matching and watching the waiver-wire is the only way to treat them. You can't put your best eggs into the receiver basket.

In the snake draft you can't have the best of everything. This means you need to pick your waiver-wire battles. Looking for runningbacks off the wire is difficult and the competition for them is fierce.

So, why so many wide receivers in my top twenty?

Reliability is crucial in your first two picks. They must be successful. You will only have 2 picks out of the top twenty to thirty-two players. Since some of these guys are going to score massive points then you also need two reliable pointers.

Most championship teams win with at least one if not two top receivers. Each year a small number (between six and eight this year) are virtually guaranteed to perform. The rest are almost interchangeable.

Oh, you'll take a stab at the breakout star, but, there are six that can be relied upon for fairly steady production. The rate of season ending injury among receivers is much lower then runningbacks and quarterbacks.

Even though it's great to subscribe to the two runningback theory, it would be foolish to pass up on a reliable scorer for a reach just to fulfill a theory.

Having one of the best runningbacks and one of the best receivers is not a bad option as you can grab your reach runningback in the third and possibly fourth round.

I confess, I'm partial to having the runningbacks, but in recent years I've discovered that I can win by extrapolating the emerging stars.

Thus the first two picks need to be reliable and not reaches.

Thus, those six receivers are more valuable then ever. Keep in mind I'm proposing that you focus on other positions afterward and don't take another receiver until the fifth to seventh round.

And, it is almost suicide to get two receivers first and pass up on all of the elite runningbacks.

Elite runningbacks, ultimately, will give you the best every week production.

It might be hard to pass up on getting Smith and Owens, but, they would be the only two I would settle for to miss out on the top fifteen or more backs that will be gone by your third pick.

Torry Holt looks to have a good season ahead. Bruce is still there as a competent foil and Curtis provides a dangerous decoy; but, Holt is the man.

Linehan helped to make Chambers a star, or maybe he simply enabled him.

He will facilitate another great season for Holt.

The soft schedule and emerging running game can take the Rams back to a possible division championship and cause some to exclaim: "The Greatest Show on Turf is back."

July 18, 2006 in ST. LOUIS | Permalink | Comments (0)

10. Steven Jackson

Jackson, here, makes for 70% of the top ten as runningbacks. The first round should be a consistent stud you can rely on that will out-perform the rest.

It's also driven by their scarcity. 32 teams, each with one primary back. Some diluted by R.B.B.C., others by poor team performance, persistent injury, team scoring attitudes; barely ten will emerge each year with decent point totals and only four or five elites.

If you ignore this position for long you'll have gaping holes in your scoring and your opponents will not.

The quarterback position will have many solid performers since each team has one starter, and 2/3rds will perform all season. There are at least two and often three receivers on every team that are in on each play, and, there are so many emerging mid-season that they make up most of the waiver wire acquisitions. In addition their scoring is so inconsistent week to week that one can hardly be relied on.

Tight ends must also block; and every team has a defense and kicker.

A week to week scoring runningback pair, coupled with the lottery pick, emerging receiver usually wins the game.

At the tenth choice, if the best are gone from one position it is better to have the elite from another position then a mediocre gamble.

Jackson is on an upward trajectory to stardom and far from a dangerous risk.

He's no Marshall Faulk, but then no-one is.

St. Louis has a new coach who claims he's going to emphasize the running game. Pundits have been calling for more balance in St. Louis since Vermeil left.

Martz resisted because he prescribed to the Martz way. With Vermeil gone the restraints were off and an unfettered passing attack ensued. They were and are good, so the air attack; like an aggressive poker player, built big stacks of victories only to finally bust out while pushing the wrong hand.

As potent as the Martz offense was, it was still one dimensional and could inevitably be cracked. They went to the next Superbowl, lost, and never went back.

Scott Linehan put together a marvelous attack last season in Miami. It should live on and grow beyond him. Even though he helped Chris Chambers emerge as a star, he often called running plays near the end-zone. This is in contrast to Martz.

Linehan didn't get to work with a solid running attack last year. In Minnesota he had a dysfunctional R.B.B.C. In St. Louis, he inherits a potentially great runningback.

At 6'2" he's the tallest back in my top forty, and at 233 one of the heaviest. It's all muscle.

With Marshall Faulk as a willing teacher, Jackson has, and is learning the nuances of the art.

No one talks of his running style being too straight up, where he can get injured, like they do with Chris Brown.

He is still young, and there are many questions about holes on the team.

The line is anchored by Orlando Pace, one of the best in the game, but, is not so strong at the other positions.

However, Bulger, and the aging receiving corp are still to be feared and can move the ball down the field. They will assist Jackson in gaining more yards and more touchdowns than in '05.

It also helps to have an easy start to get your legs. If Linehan can surprise a still reeling Denver, trying to figure out it's own offense, then they could be welcoming their division rival, Seattle, with a confident 5-0 record and revenge clearly on their mind.

All the pieces are in place for a great season for Jackson, and he may easily out-perform this tenth position.

July 18, 2006 in ST. LOUIS | Permalink | Comments (0)

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