ffdh win championships

fourth week update

I realize it's torturous for all those who drafted Culpepper and Chambers, but, they are coming together and will gel into the second half of the season.

That said, I've drafted back-ups.

Ronnie Brown is not that game changing, take control back everyone is hoping he would be. He will score, but, Culpepper needs to find his rhythm.

The defense is still stout, though soft in the secondary. The schedule is mediocre at best so the right match-ups will be key.

42. Daunte Culpepper

"Don't let me down."

That will be the song, I sing this year. I can easily see me drafting him on multiple teams.

A former fantasy football and Madden cover star, Culpepper is a god.

Or at least, I'm hoping he cements that status this year.

He went down early in the season, and had his operation immediately. He has had basically a full year to recover. He looks great and with a little luck will stay healthy all year.

With the Minnesota crash and burn behind him he joins a positive, hopeful atmosphere in what must be one of the funnest teams currently playing in the N.F.L.

Saban is a genius. He is one of the few coaches that is successfully making the cross-over from college.

He is infectious and is redefining Miami football. For too long have the scowls ruled. Saban is breathing a whole new life into a sleeping giant. He is the Japanese at Pearl Harbor, he is Prince Charming kissing the lips of Sleeping Beauty; and what a beauty she is!

Miami may not go to the Superbowl this year but they are building a powerhouse!

If they can draft or buy some O-lineman, fill a few holes in the defense, and get a quality second receiver; then, there are few teams that will stop them.

Now, you can say similar things about many teams but Saban looks on track to put this one together.

The O-line is a major concern. Brown needs to hit the ground running to get some respect out of opposing defenses so they hesitate a little before crushing Culpepper. Saban was aware of this and hopefully Culpepper can recover enough to get his mobility.

Culpepper is one of the most accurate passers in the league. Watching Chambers and what he's accomplished in the last two years with mediocre quarterbacks, should have his franchise owners salivating over his future. The Culpepper - Moss duo was one of the most feared in the league, Randy was just crying about it the other day: "Why would you break it up?"

A Culpepper - Chambers duo could be just as effective if not more.

Miami has a solid defense and always has. There is a culture and pride down there, that fills the breasts of warriors.

McMichael is a great T.E. and there is depth behind him. Saban understands the value of the fullback and believes in the rushing attack.

I'm looking to Culpepper being a great third, or, fourth round pick wild card; and, if he's hanging around in the later rounds, that's awesome.

There has been too much buzz around him and I do think he will go higher, and, I like the pick.

If things gel for Miami, and they do emerge as a powerhouse this year, he will put up first round stats.

They have a very manageable schedule and a division with two virtual patsies. They do have weird rivalry histories with buffalo and the Jets, but, should be able to overcome them.

The Patriots are on the rise, but, may have lost too much in the off-season. It does seem that they can just churn out good coaches every year like a factory, You'd think this would eventually take its toll on Belichick.

If Miami can gird it's courage, and, win in Foxborough then a division championship will be thrown open to them like the gates of Troy.

Besides, Culpepper owes his fantasy fan-base for letting them down so hard last year. He was a first round pick all over the country, and now, you can draft two quality backs, maybe three or a top receiver, and pick him up; Awesome!

15. Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown is ready to shine.

Culpepper will bring a new level of respectability to Miami.

The passing attack will be feared and that will stop defenses from stacking the box on Brown.

The O-line is not great, but, nothing helps a line better then a powerful, aggressive, downhill runner.

Cadillac took the rookie crown and Brown would love to beat him in their sophomore season.

He had a year of R.B.B.C, as he was being groomed for the big job. He studied under Ricky Williams and had to learn some wisdom from a once successful back.

The challenging, but moderate schedule strength should allow him plenty of room to establish his presence on the field.

Saban is a smart coach and one of the few recent college prospects that looks like he was a pro coach in waiting.

He is young and healthy, has had a season of hits in the N.F.L., and been working with pro coaches on technique, strength and conditioning.

I feel he represents the least risk and highest reward of the runningbacks still on the board.

In a ten team he's a perfect compliment to Terrell Owens. In a twelve, he's coupled with Steven Jackson and a promising fantasy season. In a fourteen, a nucleus of Jones-Brown is a great turn. and in a sixteen team league he's the best first choice and will probably go earlier in many drafts.

Miami has a good defense and with some luck he'll be running in January.

13. Chris Chambers

Thank You Chris for rewarding my faith with two championships.

Last year I watched all the studs, and highly regarded receivers, fly off the board; as I drafted a quarterback and runningbacks. I even, (foolishly?) had a defense.

In the keeper league, I joined, 30 picks went by before my two, and another two on the turn, I had four runningbacks before I grabbed him.

#3 - wide receiver, #20 - position players only.

only 9 runningbacks scored more and only 7 were first and second round picks.

There are 8 runningbacks before him on this list. I think, this is his year to ascend higher.

Culpepper is being penciled into the first game of the season. He was injured early last year and has had a full year to recover. He will be protected by a good line with a strong rushing attack.

Marty Booker may not be exciting, but he is competent and courageous over the middle. Campbell has some experience with Culpepper in Minnesota.

McMichael is awesome and after some quick touchdowns, like last year, he will drop back to block more.

Chambers is fast and driven. Very similar to Steve Smith, he's talented enough to be Culpepper's new Moss.

They say Culpepper tended to focus on his receivers too much, and Moss bailed him out. Well, Chambers can too. Culpepper's accuracy is the best of all current quarterbacks. The ball will be there and Chamber's desire is stronger then the defenders. His precise routes coupled with great speed make him very effective.

An analysis of receivers after breakout years, shows that they are more likely to sustain this then not.

Chambers' '05 season: 1,0,9,Bye,1,1,9,6,0,13,0,2,10,14,6,13,1

For a receiver's stats, this is remarkably consistent. Smith had four zeros and Harrison had 5. The strong finish promises a bright future and proves the team relies on him in the clutch; and, he comes through.

The runningbacks under him all have questions and with only three receivers taken, here at 13 is an opportunity to have one of the few elite available in one position.

Holt, Fitzgerald, and Moss all can be argued to be a better choice, but, in their situations, will they out-perform him?

Miami is a team on the rise. A smart and deep coaching staff, they are quietly building a winner.

If 13 is your second pick, then Chambers is a good pairing with an elite runningback, but, if you're in a deeper draft then think twice.

First, I love Chambers; and, here is a lesson for everyone; be aware of the players you love for you will draft them too high, over better choices, and hurt your goal of a championship.

That said; you also need to make your own choices.

Every year the expected rarely happens. When you match the cheat sheets to the end of season lists, there is not much that matches.

In fantasy football we are trying to predict the future. The future is an unknown, but, not necessarily unknowable. The future comes from the present and past, and thus, is a chaos.

Chaos is order's opposite; unknown, and since it's based in order, then past and present patterns can be projected into the chaos to create a framework of possibility.

It's popular to talk about the third year receiver breaking out, because, his experience, youth and talent need a few years to grow and gell.

I've noticed that among the top ten receivers for the last four years approximately 75% are in an odd year.

And, the third year is not dominant! Sometimes it's the 7th year receiver, or the 9th; and last year, the 5th dominated.

Plus, most of the receivers that achieve elite status keep it and account for most of the 25% of even year entrants in the top tens.

Hm, this seems to be a pattern that can be projected into the future.

Noticing all the mature receivers that broke out in their fifth year in '05, indicates that this could be the season of the sixth year receiver.

i.e. Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Chad Johnson, Koren Robinson, Reggie Wayne, Drew Bennett, Santana Moss, Rod Gardner.

A very impressive list of receivers. Johnson is already considered an elite; though I see a holding pattern at nine or even a drop in production. Wayne should see an increase in T.D.s, probably 10+. Robinson, Bennett, and Gardner are ripe for breakout years.

Robinson's breakout year was actually last season.

Moss may replicate his numbers but is he that valuable. Take away his top game and he drops quickly. His scores were in extreme bunches and not steadily produced. He will be drafted highly, but, is no longer a surprise in the league, or, alone on Washington's roster; stay away from him.

If 13 is your first pick, then it's an important one; but, you will have another pick within two. You will get a top shelf runningback, or perhaps another top shelf receiver. With the number of backs off the board, and only two, or six, picks coming in the snake before your second; the Chambers pick could wait. It's unlikely the remaining one or two owners will choose him.

This would argue that your choice of the available runningbacks is more important then Chambers here, especially when you can get him or one of the other three in your second pick.

I believe in Chambers and that's why he's here on my list, but, you must strategize your pick in draft sequence. Part of winning in the draft is knowing what your opponents might do and not taking your valued choices too soon.

Most published lists have Chambers below the tenth receiver, and thus, your opponents will probably not have him this high on their radar.

Ronnie Brown is still an emerging talent, and the O-line, a work in progress. Chambers will be the focal point of scoring and relied upon in the red-zone.

Miami may still lose the division to New England, and may miss the playoffs due to a rougher schedule; but, every team they play will know fear.