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October 2006

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Week Three Update

In Shanahan we trust.

Tatum Bell will get his legs and run this season. I still believe in him.

Mike Bell is succombing to injury and fumblitis.

Neither is the answer and look for Shanahan to draft either more lineman or a new back next year.

He has had a brain drain, but, will still challenge for the division title.

Walker is stepping up and will be a fantasy force before the season is over.

Plummer can do the job and a vote of confidence from his coach might help. If they keep him in check and rotate their backs, including Cobbs, then they will be allright.

After the bend, but, don't break that held Johnson lat week you have to consider the defense as a contender.

After New England and Baltimore the Oakland and Cleveland games look juicy.

September 20, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

105. Rod Smith

Smith probably deserves to be higher. He is a cannon fodder player that I hope will be taken by someone in the first four rounds, leaving the players I want to me.

If he's available late, then, he can be valuable.

He's 12 years into the league and is a consummate performer. The problem with his fantasy stats is that his scores will be haphazard, and largely unpredictable because of the prominence of the running game in Shanahan's offense.

There are other receivers and three tight ends that can catch the ball. Plus, Kyle Johnson and the other fullbacks and halfbacks will catch touchdowns too.

If Walker succeeds in his comeback he may even take over the #1 job with his youthful explosiveness.

Plummer cannot be allowed to be out of control and is restrained by Shanahan's game plan.

You'll get decent yards from Smith and 6-7 touchdowns, but, there isn't an upside to having him.

He is a #1 receiver on a prolifically scoring offense and for that reason he will always have some value.

If he's your #1 or #2, then your fantasy team is in trouble.

July 29, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

98. Cedric Cobbs

Cobbs is the last player you take in your draft. If he's not drafted watch him closely, but, when he emerges you will have to compete for him with other owners through the waiver wire.

Any back in Denver, Mike Bell included, has a chance to be a fantasy god any season. Shanahan the Genius is the guru, runningback savant of the last decade. And, like the bearded monk that sits atop the mountain, climbing up to ask him who will start and be relied upon this year will get a cryptic prophecy of codified inspiration from an enlightened plane we could never hope to understand; just simply appreciate.

Cobbs as much as anyone could emerge here, and, more then most. Denver scouted him hard, missed him, but, kept their eye on him. As he became available they secured his services. The coaching staff thinks very highly of him and if Bell and Dayne falter he will have every chance to be, the offensively prolific, Denver's, primary scorer.

At 6' 0", 227 and Superbowl experienced, Cobbs is the best wild-card in the draft.

July 28, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

89. Jake Plummer

Every team would like to have the luxury of sitting their future quarterback for a year. There is a huge difference between what they did and saw in college, and what goes on in an N.F.L. game.

Marvin Lewis reminded everyone of this when he had Kitna playing and slowly worked Palmer into the line-up, starting his second year. In his third year, Palmer became a fantasy demi-god.

Palmer is also a good reason to have either a legitimate back-up, or, your future quarterback on the bench in case of serious injury.

Cutler will be able to take his time and learn the plays, the defenses, soak up the speed of the game, and build his strength and endurance. He will also be ready, in the event that Plummer goes down, to start his career.

We'll see this year how well the theory works, as Phillip Rivers takes the field for his first, season opening, start in three years.

Aikman has stated that if he hadn't started his first season and ended up taking such a pounding his career would have been longer.

Carr has been in the line of fire from day one. He has certainly held up well. He has not been down with a serious injury, yet. And, it is the quality of his team, especially those terrible lines, that has kept him from the playoffs. If he were to have been in Roethlisberger's place, would he have performed with similar success?

Denver has a legendary running game; and don't be concerned about all of the news filler about their back confusion, its the usual confetti that Shanahan throws out there to confuse his opponents and mess up their game planning. They also have good coaching and a solid defense.

Their tight ends keep turning over, and, former Denver tight ends are littered around the league; but, that's because they have some young ones they like and they don't want to put a lot of higher money into he position right now.

Their receivers are also a jumble, which further increases the density of their (misdirection?) confusing smoke screen. Will Walker be able to come off injury and perform? Will Lelie play for Denver and/or will they replace him with another receiver; or a runningback?

With the steady veteran, Rod Smith, and the emerging, third year receiver, Darius Watts; Plummer has two excellent targets. He, and Denver will be fine.

Lelie knows that Watts is breathing down his neck, and, with Walker going to be increasingly part of the offense, he can't see a place for himself. With his underachieving play and overachieving ego, he's right.

Plummer is being reigned in. It's working. Whenever he's asked, or thinks he has to, take over a game he tries to do to much and chokes. (Sound a little like a certain Green Bay quarterback last year?)

If they keep him an active but controlled part of a well oiled offense, then Denver is hard to beat.

And, because the running game is the focus of the scoring in this offense, Plummer will always be competent, but, not spectacular.

I'd leave him as cannon fodder for someone else.

July 27, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

64. Javon Walker

At this point on the list, players that are due respect are given just that.

And, as cannon fodder they may already be on someone else's team.

Even though Walker is coming back from a severe injury, and a severe case of discontent (bad {selfish?} attitude), he is still a great talent.

Anyone who can stand in their and catch Brett Favre's finger-braking bullets, deserves respect.

Denver has a mess on it's hands right now, but, still has a variety of working receivers. Rod Smith is one of the class acts in the league and it's a testament to him that he's still with the team that drafted him.

Darius Watts is a future stud and can take the opportunities opening up for him and run with it. He is in the magical third year.

Denver will get something for Lelie and will be better off for his departure. Anyone that demands respect without proving they deserve it is an idiot. Lelie is a good second receiver and has not shown the heart it takes to be a first.

He has a good contract that he signed and needs to honor.

If he tries to sit out the season, I would love to see, just once, a team take their player to court over breach of contract.

Oh yea, that happened to Rasta - Ricky!

Denver is ready to make a run at another Superbowl and this idiot, who really is an important part of that plan, objects to them adding the last component that will take them there.

Hmm, maybe he hears the footsteps of a draft pick that could supplant him in the line-up this season.

After all Walker, inevitably, is there to replace Smith, not Lelie. If Lelie outperformed him then he would have earned the #1 receiver role. Shanahan saw a good deal and pulled the trigger. He envisioned a Walker - Lelie attack with Watts as the third receiver.

Unfortunately, ego's got in the way and things turn bad.

Lelie can go away, because this team will go on, and will do well.

Will Walker be a scoring part of that this year? Who knows? He has his money and has his pride. He may be an excellent pick-up for the second half run.

Kind of like the numbers Boldin put up last year after sitting out the first half with his injury.

Someone will take him higher, and that's OK.

Greenbay passes to score. Denver passes to set up the running score.

Shanahan knows he needs to keep Plummer's passes to a minimum to succeed.

With the injury, new system and scoring competition, I think I have him in the right place.

Walker will contribute, just, not right away.

July 24, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

46. Ron Dayne

Sometimes, you draft a runner for his talent and power; his ability to take over the game regardless of his supporting cast. (Barry Sanders)It is equally important to draft a running game. Football is a team sport and not just an individual showcase. Certain teams work together to be the best rushing attacks in the league.

Each coach has a philosophy of attack. The N.F.L. has been termed the copycat league. Someone comes up with something new, that works, and soon everyone is trying it out. The reality is a little different.

A game is set up and defined by rules. This determines a certain type of play that is the standard and the best players, or, the players that work together as the best team; will win.Change comes not in a radical redefining of the rules, but, in a subtle reordering, or, a radical departure from the accepted standard.

This works, because, as time goes on and game plans are developed to where they become codified and doctrine, then, everyone is, to a certain extent, equal and predictable. When the A.F.C. was originated they developed a more exciting game by throwing the ball more and getting the focus away from the rugby scrum. Namath proved it's worth in Superbowl III. The rules were already there to do this it took some rebels reacting against the prejudiced and traditional establishment to evolve forward.

The establishment solidifies because everyone wants to imitate proven results and no one wants to be the fool who tries something and fails.

The West Coast system, credited to Bill Walsh, was radical, and now it has become a doctrinal alternative. It has pervaded the league in various forms. Bastard versions have cropped up on teams that simply didn't have the personnel to implement it and this has caused some goofy game-plans of the traditional with the new superimposed upon it.

Every team would run the 3-4 defense if it had the personnel to do it. Currently, more teams are experimenting with, and trying to wrap their minds around, the smaller line, working as a unit, and, using the Zone/Cut Blocking scheme developed by Alex Gibbs.

The West Cost offense was so successful and pervasive that it entered into the consciousness of the game and with G.M.'s drafting to accommodate it, few teams have been left outside it's influence. It's ritual has become Dogma.

The underlying problem is twofold. First, many teams just simply don't have the right talent or personnel to implement it properly, or, successfully; (there is only one champion each year) and, secondly defenses have seen enough of it to have a solid response, a Cliff Note primer, as you will.

In the end, everything comes from the top. The coaches philosophy, formed during his assistant coaching orientation, defines the team by the players he influences on it and the training and practice decisions he makes.

Atlanta, Kansas City, Washington, Carolina, Denver; all of these teams have an excellent running game.

Atlanta has achieved a #1 status on the illusion of having a rushing Q.B. that skews their stats. He can't throw too accurately, and takes off running a lot; and, so, a small, quick, cheap, between the numbers runner eats up yards. A power back bulls red-zone attempts into touchdowns. Vick's high salary makes it hard to pay for an Edgerrin James, for example. (There's only so much money and part of the equality that makes the N.F.L. great is that everyone must figure out where to put it. Over-pay here and another place suffers.)

Kansas City has the best O- line personnel in the league. No offense to Holmes or Johnson, but a lot of backs with mediocre careers could be stars behind that line.

Washington, now, has Joe Gibbs as its coach. He is old school and values the running game over all else. He understands that it sets up everything you want to do on the field. I would argue that his Superbowls come from being the solid executioner of the traditions of football rather then the innovator of radical design. Bill Walsh got his, through redefining the basic attack philosophy and introducing an new structure within the rules; it did help that a vicious (on purpose?) block broke Krumrie's leg for without that they would have lost, and the West Coast Offense might not be so pervasive today.

When all the other teams collapsed to injury, intimidation, exhaustion; there was Gibbs with his solid unit marching to victory. It didn't even matter who the quarterback was as two non-starters won Superbowls for him.When all else fails the basics will always win out. Just ask John Riggins.

Carolina has a defensive oriented coach who approaches the game from that mind-set, and so, this pervades his offense. They are safe, solid and methodical. If it can be said that everyone stays in their lanes in his offense then that is what they do. He has created an awesome running attack that is just waiting for a talented back, who can stay healthy, to emerge as a star.

Denver, under Shanahan and Alex Gibbs have redefined the entire concept and created something radically new that works.

As O-lineman got larger and larger until you have Ted Washington penciled in as both guard and tackle, or so it seems, The bulk race started to hit a saturation point. Whether through necessity or 'eureka' inspiration; I suspect that he had the athletic smaller lineman and did not originally go looking for them, Alex Gibbs devised a way to make what he had effective. His new system was more then effective, it redefined the game.

Any person or system that comes along and forces everyone else to change their game-plan to deal with it, is considered a revolution. We all like to be comfortable with things we can depend on and when faced with change respond accordingly, but, always feel uncomfortable, gripe, scream, absorb, adapt and finally respect the winner; who can, of course, weather the early storm of criticism.

I utilized Denver's system to win a championship last year.

'05 top fantasy runners: Holmes/Johnson 208, Alexander 199, Anderson/Bell 158, Tomlinson 153, Barber/Jacobs 150, James 107, Portis 98.

Hm, the 'Buddy System' seems to be quite effective. Let's say you started Jordan/D. Davis 136, or Jackson/C. Williams 129, or, were lucky and got R. Johnson/T.Jones 165. You could have started Barber/Jacobs all season and gotten only 15 points less then two, virtual lottery picks!

Our league runs a utility player. We are called the West Coast because we started three receivers in order to be different from my brother's league. We changed the third receiver in the second season to open up more possibilities since we were popular and had sixteen teams. This position can be a W.R., R.B., or T.E.

But, even if you don't have the possibility of starting three runningbacks it's obvious that the 'Buddy System' can outperform most of the runningback duo's that you can put together in the snake draft.

Bell is coming in to camp with more muscle and conditioning then ever. He has determination and experience and will win the starter's job. You can draft him probably in the third round and then pick up Dayne in the fifth or later and have a potent duo on the field, let alone having the perfect back-up if one goes down or doesn't work out.

It's is so hard to believe that Ron Dayne has suddenly toughened up and changed his attitude towards the game. All those wasted draft picks and sorry performances for the Giants weigh heavily on everyone's mind.

Mine too; still, he is the perfect late draft pick handcuff.

The R.B.B.C. is dreaded because it dilutes two ordinary players stats to below the average. When faced with an awesome rushing attack, that's the philosophy and scoring orientation of an above average team, it's wise to redefine the R.B.B.C. into the Buddy System.

Cedric Cobbs is an option for Denver and even Mike Bell should not be overlooked. No one will draft Bell, but, Cobbs could be. If nothing happens then chances are he'll be dropped in the first three weeks to clear space on the bench anyway.

In leagues that have large benches just draft him too.

Dayne may win the starting job and then Bell is the handcuff. At this point it's too hard to tell what Shanahan will do, but, his offense is too hard to ignore.

Especially this year with the receivers in disarray. Plumber can throw, and, Smith is an old stud. Whether Lelie goes, or, Walker can get healthy doesn't matter so much, because, Watts is an emerging star. The coaches know that they need to reign in Plummer to succeed and all confidence is in their most successful unit; the O-line.

even if you don't get Bell, Dayne is still a great, late round, gamble. If you're short on backs I'd rather take a gamble then a flier on mediocrity.

July 22, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

26. Tatum Bell

Denver and Carolina will both be in the playoffs and both teams have two of the best O-lines in the N.F.L. It's not inconceivable that they will meet in the Superbowl.

Both teams will finish tops in rushing, neither likes to use a true R.B.B.C., and neither has a clear #1.

These are the make or break choices that can win championships. Picking one of these backs is like playing King-Queen suited, all in against a smaller pocket pair.

True, I did bust out of the last W.S.P.T. tournament when neither of my cards showed, but, I also won a championship playing Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell last year.

In fact their combined numbers were 158! Only Shaun Alexander and the combined Holmes-Johnson pairing did better in '05.

'05 Anderson/Bell combined 158: 0,0,7,3,16,15,9,24,Bye,7,20,0,15,1,14,7,19

The first or second pick in the draft is like two picks because everyone will have two by the time he gets another. Compare Alexander's line with this one.

'05 Alexander, 199: 1,8,26,7,14,26,1,Bye,17,21,14,8,12,8,9,20,7

Alexander was the #1 finisher. Now compare it to #3,#4, and #5.

Tomlinson, 153: 7,13,24,14,8,17,0,4,26,Bye,7,23,1,1,1,0,7

Barber, 108: 8,13,1,8,Bye,1,7,10,1,11,2,3,2,9,18,1,13

James, 107: 1,2,8,7,8,20,14,Bye,8,8,13,2,8,2,6,0,0

The Denver duo performs better then both Tomlinson and James through the fantasy playoffs and Superbowl, and equals all of the best scorers for the year.

There is a strategy here that should be considered carefully.

I saw a Jacksonville pairing played a few years ago where the owner won game after game as both backs scored like first rounders.

I correctly divined that Anderson would be the man in Denver. With Both Portis and Droughns gone he already had the 1500 yard season on his resume and Denver had a good fullback to fill his previous assignment.

Bell was young and small. I drafted Anderson in two leagues with late picks. When Bell was dropped in disgust in the third week I jumped on him and played both of them almost every week from then on. It was Bell who outpointed Alexander in week 17 to etch my name on the 'Amelia Vega Bowl'.

The problem was evident last year when many of the owners that drafted Holmes were too busy filling up other positions and lost Johnson. With Holmes' age, recent history of injury, and high odometer; it was a fatal mistake.

I wouldn't even call this handcuffing because that term was designed for back-up players. Lets call it the buddy system. (I'm N.A.U.I. and P.A.D.I. certified.)

Since many early draft picks will be failures why not resort to the buddy system. When I think of picking Culpepper first in two leagues and McNabb first in one other, and, how I followed that pick with McAlister in the second; it brought up memories of Ahman Green. [shudder]

The buddy system can be very valuable.

Everyone will be staying away from Denver. Savvy owners will understand that a lot of rushing touchdowns will be coming out of Denver. But, which back will be on the receiving end of those points and how soon do you take him?

Shanahan loves to run and has established his reputation on it. Elway said he would never had had a Superbowl without Davis. Shanahan's offenses are prolific scorers and ball control specialists.

If you take Bell in the third round, or, find him there in the fourth, you must consider Dayne a round or two later. Watch the available running backs and know where the magazine lists have Dayne. If he's still there in three rounds then you have to pull the trigger.

Bell is established and added ten pounds of muscle in the off-season because Shanahan told him that he wasn't big enough to be the every down back. Frankly, he wants it, and, I think his workout commitment may have sewed up the deal. Remember, each year puts on another layer of muscle and the body initially grows stronger in response to the pounding it's taking.

The wild card is Cedric Cobb and he will be my last pick of the draft if I don't get either of the first two. You can't ignore the Denver running game's value and the propensity for Shanahan to pan nuggets of gold out of the Colorado hills.

Shanahan does like to feature one back at the goal line, but, is a great play caller and a variety of T.E.'s and fullbacks will get touchdowns. He will use Bell, who I'm willing to bet will stay healthy, and if Dayne is the real deal will use him too.

Having both could be a shrewed move and needs to be considered. I think Bell is the man, and Dayne will be used between the numbers as a change of pace back. He needs to earn Shanahan's trust. Bell, proven by his off-season commitment, already has it.

July 20, 2006 in DENVER | Permalink | Comments (0)

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